Slide 1: Web 2.0 Ed Yourdon email:ed@yourdon.com Website: www.yourdon.com Blog: www.yourdonreport.com version 43
Slide 2: Publication Details, and General Disclaimer This “Web 2.0” GoogleDocs presentation is an open-content collaborative document. Anyone with an Internet connection and World Wide Web browser may view and/or alter its content -- for better or worse -- within the constraints of Google’s access mechanisms for such documents. Please be advised that nothing in this document has necessarily been reviewed by Ed Yourdon ("Ed"); the theories and business practices expressed by the “Web 2.0” document are not necessarily his. This isn't to say you won't find valuable and accurate information herein; however, Ed cannot summarily guarantee the validity this “Web 2.0” document. The content of any given page may recently have been changed, dumbed-down, or otherwise edited by someone whose opinion does not correspond to Ed’s original “Web 2.0” material (or any subsequent drafts). Neither Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, nor anyone else connected with this “Web 2.0” document, can in any way whatsoever be held responsible for the appearance of any inaccurate information, or for your use of the information contained i or linked from this document. You are being granted a limited license to copy anything from this document; it does not create or imply any contractual or extra-contractual liability on the part of Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, or viewers of this material. There is no agreement or understanding between you and Ed regarding your use or modification of this information beyond the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL); neither is Ed responsible should someone change, edit, modify, or remove any information that you may post on this “Web 2.0” document. Any of the trademarks, service marks, collective marks, design rights, personality rights, or similar rights that are mentioned, used, or cited in this “Web 2.0” document are the property of their respective owners. Their use here does not imply that you may use them for any purpose other than for the same or similar informational use -- as recognized under the GFDL licensing scheme. Unless otherwise stated, Ed and this “Web 2.0” document are neither endorsed by nor affiliated with any of the holder of any such rights; as such, Ed cannot grant any rights to use any otherwise protected materials. Your use of any such or simila incorporated property is at your own risk. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 3: Topics 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Introduction Themes History Technology Products, vendors Business Issues Cultural issues Trends Conclusions References Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 4: 1. Introduction Definitions: what is Web 2.0? Web 2.0: profound business, technological, and social changes Danger of over-hyping Lessons to learn from Web 1.0, to plan for Web 2.0 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 5: Many people feel they don't really understand what Web 2.0 is all about, and there aren't any good, simple definitions. My definition (more) O’Reilly definitions (more) YouTube: “the machine is (us)ing us” viewed 3.4 million times as of 9/18/2007 See Wesch’s explanation of how he made the video See John Battelle’s interview with the author See also Michael Wesch’s “Vision of Students Today” See also Michael Wesch’s YouTube video about the transformation of paper informatin into digital information Definitions Pew Report definition 24-minute video documentary definition Shortcomings of definitions Differences between Web 1.0 and 2.0(more) Main business Web 2.0 tools (more) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 6: Ed's definition Web 2.0 is the combination of: tools and technologies business strategies (like blogging, external wikis, customer participation) and social/cultural trends which drive the individual creation and sharing of content on the Internet ublished under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 7: O’Reilly definitions Compact definition Long definition New (Oct 2007) definition: "intelligence in the back end" Hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness ublished under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 8: Main Web 2.0 tools Blogs Wikis Podcasts RSS Collaborative content tagging Social networking (see IBM’s activities in this area!) Mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 9: Intro: Business Changes Empowering employees Let them blog - internally & externally Let them collaborate with wikis Encouraging external collaboration with wikis Long Tail phenomenon (more) Product vs. Service (MS Office vs. Google Docs; Web-based calendars, etc.) Publishing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 10: Business change: publishing Craigslist vs. classified ads Blogs vs. newspapers Book mashups Communal authorship: JESA wiki Communal product reviews (Amazon) Communal advertisement/commercials Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 11: Intro: Tech Changes Perpetual beta Ajax, Ruby on Rails, and more... Web as the platform API’s facilitating mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 12: Tech: web as platform Google Apps Virtual Ubiquity's Buzzword word processor (acquired by Adobe on 9/30/2005) 30 Boxes (calendar) SmartSheet: project management Zoho Spreadsheet Zoho DB database and more every day... Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 13: Intro: social changes The public: wired (73%), but not Web 2.0 (8%) (based on a Feb-Apr 2006 survey, which did not include teenagers) Blogs Trust in Wikipedia Emphasis on communities “People power” Political commentary Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 14: Technology Usage in U.S.
Slide 15: Social change: blogs Latest count: 71 million blogs, 120K new blogs every day Pew survey of bloggers Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 16: Social change: Twitter Microblogging: Twitter (100,000+ members); see David Weinberger's characterization as "continuous partial friendship" See Forrester report estimating that 6% of American public Twitters See Scoble’s disagreement/rebuttal of Forrester estimate about Twitter See Guy Kawasaki’s blog on “How Twitter Made My Website Better”
Slide 17: Social change: trust in Wikipedia Campaigns Wikia Essjay controversy Wikipedia article on UVA massacre WikiScanner (more on Wikis, Wikipedia later) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 18: Social change: emphasis on communities MySpaceNation Joe Ford’s congressional campaign The Mom Network Steve Ballmer’s comments on communities note to collaborators: please add additional relevant examples Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 19: Social change: “people power” Time magazine’s 2006 “person of the year”: you Farecast.com Farecast review Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 20: Social change: political commentary TechPresident blog A smorgasborg of YouTube political videos 2008: the Web 2.0 election? Web 2.0 “Wisdom of the Crowd” to probe 2008 Presidential contenders Web 2.0 impact on 2006 elections Obama “1984” mashup 3.9 million downloads, creator resigns YouTube interview with video creator Hilary Clinton on Second Life George Bush “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” mashup Saturday Nite Live’s spoof of George Bush on global warming Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 21: Intro: danger of over-hyping “Old ideas are completely obsolete!” “This will revolutionize the world!” “Our Web 2.0 startup will make us rich!” The sobering reality of the 80-20 rule VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model New business reality: low startup costs, VC’s not as important as before New exit strategy: no IPO, but get acquired by Google Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator Reality: people adapt to new things more slowly than innovators realize Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 22: Learn Lessons from Web 1.0 to plan for Web 2.0 Business Plan Archive’s “Top Ten Lessons from the Dot-Com Meltdown” “The real learning happens at the intersection of an industry and a generation” Expect major shakeouts Anticipate new competitors Don’t forget business fundamentals Beware over-hyping Five lessons from Financial Times Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 23: 2. Basic themes of Web 2.0 Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Reputation economy Architecture of creation vs consumption Recurring themes Related concepts Mashups Long Tail Wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 24: Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Summary of differences Web 1.0: mostly static Web pages Centralized/corporate publishers of content Single-site content Some “portals” But generally no API’s or mashups Inadequate technology Slow bandwidth No Ajax, full-page refresh Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 25: Reputation economy User reviews (e.g., Amazon) Naymz’s “reputation community” Ed’s Naymz interview Tag clouds StumbleUpon TechCrunch review of StumbleUpon Google’s New Orleans Controversy Wikipedia: covert alterations -> WikiScanner Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 26: Tag Clouds Definition Flickr tag cloud Technorati tag cloud Del.icio.us tag cloud TagCloud.com Selecting RSS feeds by tag Critical article Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 27: Architecture of creation vs. consumption PC + laser printer made everyone a “publisher” Now it’s blogs and wikis (state of the blogosphere) Reasons for “personal publishing” Dreams of fame & riches Desire to “connect” Passion for subject matter Ego Reputation Too much time on their hands (an ongoing trend!) Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “user-centered innovation”) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 28: Recurring themes for Web 2.0 Themes from my Aug 2006 visit to Web 2.0 vendors in Silicon Valley (blog posting) Enterprise 2.0 Building Blocks: SLATES; see also the article, "Enterprise 2.0: the dawn of emergent collaboration" from MIT Sloan Review. Empower individual customers, employees, citizens Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 29: Mashups Definition: blending content from > one source Examples Web sites Tech Beat: Blogs on Mashups Programmable Web: list of mashups Wiki for Web Services and Open API’s Business model for mashups Tools Yahoo Pipes Google’s MyMaps Microsoft's PopFly Note to collaborators: please add more examples of tools for creating mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 30: Mashup Examples Google Maps + CraigsList Housing Maps for Italy YouTube.com Podbop mapsexoffenders.com Earth Sandwich Middle East news + blogs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 31: Long Tail Basic concept History Chris Anderson’s PopTech 2006 PPT slides Examples Advice & Recommendations Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 32: Long Tail Concepts Selling more and more to fewer and fewer Pareto’s Principle (80-20) less relevant today Relationship to Web 2.0 Shift from the monopoly of the “big hits” favors tiny publishers and creators of Web content Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with “aggregators” like Amazon, iTunes, NetFlix, etc. Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected “blockbuster” through viral marketing, word of mouth video: “Day of the Long Tail” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 33: Long Tail History Scarcity favors the 80-20 rule Production Inventory Shelf-space Distribution Bits on the Internet changes the rules Production Inventory Shelf-space Distribution Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 34: Amazon (98% of 100,000) iTunes (100% of 5 million) Long Tail Examples Tim O’Reilly’s critique of Amazon long-tail stats NetFlix (95% of 55,000 movies) Lego Software development JotSpot Powerpoint presentation Part 2 of Powerpoint presentation General info on JotSpot (recently acquired by Google) Website design Death of blockbuster drugs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 35: Long Tail Advice Two imperatives Make everything available Help me find it Nine rules (summarized from longer discussion in Chapter 14 of The Long Tail) 1. Move inventory to the edge -- keep a virtual inventory, and transfer costs to your suppliers 2. Let customers do the work -- "crowdsourcing" to let customers reviews rank your books, write your product reviews, etc -- because "collectively, customers have virtually unlimited time and energy." 3. One distribution method doesn’t fit all -- think niche 4. One product doesn’t fit all -- think niche 5. One price doesn’t fit all -- think niche 6. Share information -- which requires giving up control 7. Think “and” not “or” (Coke) 8. Trust the market to do your job -- a variation on #2 above 9. Understand the power of the free -- combine premium pricing and a free version of what you provide; rely on an advertising-supported move. ublished under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 36: Wikis Concepts History Examples Tools Benefits Risks Implications Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 37: Wiki concepts Rapid iteration of documents, designs, reports, etc. Widespread collaboration -- either inside or outside an organizational boundary Relationship to Web 2.0? Relationship to Open Source development? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 38: Wiki History Ward Cunningham’s work Pattern language work, using Hypercard WikiWikiWeb, 1995 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 39: Examples List of largest wikis Wikipedia (more) Proctor & Gamble “Connect & Develop” (more) European pharma “dark blog” case study Eli Lilly “Innocentive” initiative (more) Social Text Source Forge (open source) iStock Photo (more) My JESA “structured analysis” wiki Semi-private university wikis This Web 2.0 Google Docs presentation! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 40: Wikipedia Harvard Business School case study 2-millionth English-language article published on 09/12/2007 The 1-percent rule: 2% of Wikipedia editors generate 60% of its content Growth may be slowing; see this Oct 11, 2007 TechCrunch article and this Wikipedia page One risk of Wikipedia: "truth by consensus" (aka "wikiality") WikiScanner Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 41: Proctor & Gamble 8,000 researchers 600 partners productivity up 60% 35% of innovations from outside R&D costs dropped from 4.8% of sales, down to 3.4% of sales Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 42: Eli Lilly Innocentive 30 companies involved 90,000(!) scientists Rewards up to $100,000 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 43: iStock Photo Sells photos for $1-5, much cheaper than traditional commercial sources Pays royalties to amateur photographers Licensed 10 million images in 2006 Purchased by Getty Images for $50 million But may be rendered irrelevant by (free) Flickr... My Flickr page, for whatever it’s worth... ... or Photobucket acquired by Fox Media in July, 2007 has 35 million visitors/month has 3.636 billion images as of 09/24/2007 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 44: Wiki Tools Twiki (free) MediaWiki pbWiki JotSpot (recently acquired by Google) Ed’s report on JotSpot JotSpot 2.0 Wikipatterns Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 45: Wiki Benefits New workforce: “crowdsourcing” (“people power”) Some enjoy modest, part-time income Google Answers: $2.50 payments Hobbyists often happy to work for free Time magazine article: “Getting Rich on Those Who Work for Free” Flickr, and other sources of artistic/IP contributions “raw” resources: grid computing, SETI-at-home Yahoo Answers: 10 million free answers Access “loyal” resources Retirees Alumni Customers Generate new ideas, products more quickly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 46: Wiki Risks Security Privacy Censorship issues IP ownership Control Anarchy Credibility of information The Essjay Controversy David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 47: Wiki implications Consider inhouse wiki as a learning experience Visit/learn about other successful wiki initiatives Consider limited “external” collaboration wiki as a pilot project Remember: tools are just enablers; cultural issues are more important Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 48: Web 2.0 History Pre-History Initial rejection of Web 2.0 concepts Amazon “long tail” in 1995 eBay “long tail” in 1995 WikiWikiWeb in 1995 Yahoo (various Web 2.0 concepts) in 1996 Google advertising (long tail), 2000 Wikipedia in 2001 iTunes (long tail) in 2001 Early book with “Web 2.0” title, 2002 Development of enabling technologies Social/cultural influences Clue Train Manifesto User-generated content First Web 2.0 conference in 2004 “Buzz” began in 2005 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 49: Web 2.0 Technology Ajax Ruby on Rails API’s Tools/IDE’s Other enabling technology Design guidelines, best practices Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 50: Technology - Ajax Basic concept Architectural guidelines Examples Ajaxifying legacy apps Ajax-related web sites Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 51: Ajax - basic concept Asynchronous Javascript & XML Standards-based presentation using XHTML and CSS Dynamic display and interaction using DOM Data interchan ge using XML and XSLR Ansynchronous data retrieval using XML HttpRequest or XMLHTTP (from Microsoft) Javascript binding everything together Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 52: Ajax: architectural guidelines Small server-side events, no full-page refresh Asynchronous activity: users continue working after invoking a request “onAnything”: any user event can cause an asynchronous event Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 53: Ajax: examples Flickr Meebo Nowsy - an Ajax home page All of the Zoho products Timeline - Ajax widget for visualizing time-based events Microsoft releases beta AJAX note to collaborators: please add more important Ajax examples, as appropriate Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 54: Ajaxifying legacy apps “Ajax spurs rebirth for desktop apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 Writely -- now Google Docs Google spreadsheets -- now Google Docs Many other companies are now doing this, though it’s not always easy to provide a cost-benefit justification Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 55: Ajax Web sites Ajax matters Ajaxian Ajax magazine Sites using Ajax Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 56: Technology - Ruby on Rails Basic concepts Examples Websites Tools, etc. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 57: Ruby on Rails: basic concepts Open-source web application framework written in Ruby Closely follows the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture originally developed for Smalltalk Strives for simplicity and allowing real-world applications to be developed in less code (and thus less effort/time) than other frameworks -- and with a minimum of configuration Ruby programming language allows for extensive metaprogramming, which Rails makes great use of Rails architecture strongly favors database use, and an RDBMS system is recommended for data storage Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 58: Ruby on Rails: examples Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website) Companies A-M Companies N-Z Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 59: Ruby on Rails: Websites RubyOnRails.org Wiki site SourceForge AjaxOnRails Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 60: Ruby on Rails: Tools, etc. Integration with Visual Studio note to collaborators: need more examples of RubyOnRails tools Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 61: Technology - API’s Google Google Maps API Google AJAX search API Yahoo Yahoo search API Google AJAX search API AOL AIM API’s Dapper’s API service Twitter API Facebook API note to collaborators: need more examples of API’s for Web 2.0 development what about Amazon, iTunes, eBay, etc.? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 62: Technology: tools/IDE’s Primary objective: fast and flexible development, not reuse Aptana note to collaborators: need more examples of general tools and IDE’s for Web 2.0 development Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 63: Technology - other enabling technologies XML Web services: network as platform (see “Microsoft declares end of PC era”) Django: a high-level Python Web framework RSS Adobe Flex Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 64: Technology - Design guidelines, best practices Agile development Scott Rosenberg’s dissent: 5-year Web 2.0 design cycle Client-server issues UI issues Problems with non-integrated Web 2.0 apps Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 65: Products/Vendors Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Big vendors Top 25 UK vendors Top Italian Web apps Web apps around the world Social Networking Services Other startups, small vendors A visual display of all Web 2.0 vendors Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 66: Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Use of Web 2.0 technologies One perspective: blogs, wikis, podcasts, RSS, social networks, content tags Providing Web 2.0 products/services People power Use of mashups Use of Long Tail concept Emerging theme: let users (customers) take their data with them when/if they leave Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 67: Big Vendors Google Yahoo Microsoft IBM Apple Cisco Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 68: Google The Economist: “Who’s Afraid of Google?” Google’s Master Plan (just kidding!) My visit to Google Mashups: Google’s MyMaps Long Tail: statistics on advertising People Power: Google Pages Google Apps Google Powerpoint Google Notebook (in 17 languages!) New stuff: Google3D Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 69: Yahoo Relationship with JotSpot Yahoo buys Zimbra Yahoo Pipes Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 70: Microsoft Network as Platform: Windows Office Live (see Mary Jo Foley's Sep 30, 2007 summary) Blogging tool: Windows Live Writer Computerworld review Support for Ajax Mashups Strategy MapCruncher PopFly Long Tail -- XBox Live Arcade Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 71: IBM Summary of Web 2.0 initiatives Mashup strategy Support for Ruby on Rails Support for Ajax Lotus Notes V8 IBM acquires Web conferencing service provider Blog: "Will IBM compete with Facebook/Web 2.0?" Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 72: Apple Long Tail: iTunes People Power: iWeb Mashups: rumor of iPhoto-GoogleMap mashup (which Flickr already has!) Use of Web 2.0 technologies: Ajax (e.g., Apple’s .Mac web-mail) Innovative UI: iPhone, iPod Touch Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 73: Cisco Cisco Buys Five Across Cisco Buys Webex Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 74: Products/vendors: Social Networking Services YouTube: 100 million videos/day John Dvorak’s analysis of YouTube success factors Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2006 Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announced it will publish its univ lectures on YouTube MySpace, FaceBook, LinkedIn, etc. "New Yorker" article: in-person networking in a Facebook world SecondLife Statistic: 300 social networking startups in last two years Statistic: 100,000 Ning “micro” social networks (see Ning) The 1% rule: 1% of a social site's visitors create most content, and 10% "synthesize" the content by interacting with it. Top 20 social networks, ranked Now used heavily by middle-aged audiences Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 75: Other startups, small vendors Digg (more) 37 Signals’ HighRise CRM Zoho CRM Scoble’s review of SmartSheet Naymz NetSuite’s Ajax-based interactive dashboards Web 2.0 company name generator (amusing) The future of Web startups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 76: Digg Interview with Digg’s Kevin Rose Ed’s report on Digg Digg Swarm Digg Stack Digg BigSpy Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 77: Business Issues Basic issues Reactions and trends in large companies Web 2.0 in government Recommended strategies for “traditional” companies Strategies for startup companies Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 78: Business: basic issues Strategic Use Web 2.0 (including related concepts like Long Tail) to find new products, services, markets Use Web 2.0 to increase revenue, dramatically reduce costs Use Web 2.0 to empower individual customers, employees -- and outsiders like retirees, alumni, and others Tactical Encourage collaboration with wikis Encourage communication with blogs Improve UI of web-based products and services with AJAX, etc. Use new tools like Ruby on Rails to build Web 2.0 products, services more quickly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 79: Reactions and trends in large companies Technology adoption cycle “CIO” prediction for 2007: “IT reluctantly embraces Web 2.0” Fall 2007 "CIO Magazine" survey on personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO's Expect conservative reaction from CIO’s Two views of Web 2.0 use in business for 2007 “IT Can’t Stop Web 2.0” Knowledge Worker 2.0 Sun’s endorsement of CEO blogging High-level blogging at Intel “Dark blogs” Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs, 10,000 internal blogs note to collaborators: do you know of any articles or blog postings to confirm this statistic? I’ve only heard it verbally, from a Microsoft presenter, at a Web 2.0 conference in 2006 WebWorkerDaily: acknowledging lifestyle of distributed workers IBM comments on collaboration and business-oriented social networks CEO reaction to social media Social networking as a business tool Ed’s notes on corporate blogging here, and here; sample corporate blogging policies here and here Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 80: Technology adoption cycle
Slide 81: Web 2.0 in government One basic strategy: shift control and resources for services, information, and expression of ideas/opinions to citizens Travel delays (clevercommute.com), parking information Saving democracy with Web 2.0 Hastily Formed Networks (HFN’s) (see Luis Suarez's blog posting about the use of Twitter and microblogging in emergencies) Health-related initiatives: see Marissa Mayer’s description at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference of what Google is doing with Google Health US Federal Government Web 2.0 Norwegian Government Web 2.0 Tim O’Reilly on government’s use of Web 2.0 Section 508 compliance issues U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s use of Web 2.0 A-Space IBM on governmental blogging Poll: is the government ready for Web 2.0? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 82: Recommended strategies for traditional companies Developing an enterprise Web 2.0 strategy A Microsoft perspective on business opportunities for Web 2.0 SWOT analysis Pilot projects IBM's Luis Suarez on "making the business case for social computing" Skunk works Acquisitions Case study: $279 Forrester report on Web 2.0 implementation at Northwestern Insurance; Yahoo Finance summary of the report Two more case studies on introducing Web 2.0 into the corporate environment, on the Enterprise Web 2.0 website Case study of SAP introducing social networks into its own corporate environment Heed advice for avoiding dot-bomb 2.0 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 83: Recommended strategies: SWOT analysis Opportunities New products, services New markets, new customers (Long Tail) Greater customer loyalty Greater employee loyalty Faster time, lower cost for R&D, product development Threats New competitors whose existence you don’t even know about More effective competition from competitors who are enjoying the benefits oppportunities summarized above Loss of reputation (e.g., from customer blogs) Security problems caused by blending of "personal" and corporate IT lives Risk of malware Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 84: Strategies for startups Scobleizer’s advice Brad Feld’s advice about VC economics for Web 2.0 companies Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 85: Cultural Issues People power Generational trends Open, sharable content/interface Hook into Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc. Look for ways to “open up” your own company’s intellectual/information assets “Outward bound” collaboration: retirees, alumni, hobbyists Long Tail impact Perpetual beta environment Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 86: Cultural Issues: people power Customers Employees Marketplace Citizens Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 87: People power: customers Let them help design new products Let them help suggest ads/marketing current.com’s Joel Hyatt says customers prefer them 9-to-1 over traditional commercials Cost is zero, as compared to $1 million for traditional commercial ads kayak.com user ads Chevy Tahoe user commercial fan-made iPhone commercial see current.com for a more ambitious initiative in this area for user-generated content Let them provide feedback/commentary on products/services Let them help other customers with problems/support Sometimes they know more than the developer/manufacturer Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 88: People power: employees Let them blog behind the firewall, if not openly and publicly Remember: Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs and 10,000 internal blogs Example: CEO of Sun Microsystems blogs Example: UN policy - permission required for writing books, but not posting blogs! Non-technical example at Google: new products bubble up from the bottom of organization Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 89: People power: marketplace Viral marketing Viral dissemination of good news and bad news AOL cancellation example Comcast customer service visit Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 90: People power: citizens Decreased dependence on “authoritative” source of news/content Political commentary “Daily Show” commentary on Viacom-Google billion dollar lawsuit Philippine activists using YouTube to spread word about political protest issues Mashup of George Bush and U2’s “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” Products/services get adapted in unexpected ways New York Times: CraigsList used by prostitutes Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 91: Cultural Issues: Generational trends Demographics of bloggers Rise of the “silver surfers” Senior management is two generations older than today’s Web 2.0-savvy population What Web 2.0 will mean for the next generation of the workforce Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 92: Cultural issues: Long Tail Impact Stop focusing entirely on “big hits” Look for ways to create/nourish a “long tail” of products/services Often represents a huge cultural change for the business people (e.g., R&D, product planning, marketing, etc.) whose job always assumed emphasizing the big hits and ignoring almost everything else Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 93: Cultural issues: perpetual beta concept “Good enough” culture Weekly releases of new downloadable updates/enhancements -- versus annual releases of new products Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 94: Trends Caveat: predicting the future is hard And there is resistance to “paradigm shifts” Basic point: today’s R&D is next decade’s “mainstream” Gartner’s view of Web 2.0 trends Kevin Kelly’s view of “next web” Morgan Stanley 2007 Internet trends Web 3.0 Technical trends Business trends Social/cultural trends Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 95: Trends: predicting the future is hard! Fubini’s Law People least likely to anticipate how new technology will be applied Examples of inaccurate predictions Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 96: Examples of inaccurate predictions In 1895, British Postmaster General Arnold Morley said, "Gas and water are necessities for every inhabitant of the country. Telephones are not and never will be. It is no use trying to persuade ourselves that the use of the telephone could be enjoyed by the large masses of people in their daily life.” (see Public Ownership and the Telephone in Great Britain, Chapter VIII, p. 117) In 1903, soon after the first Wright Brothers flight, Rudyard Kipling predicted that airpseeds would reach only 300 mph by the year 2000. In 1927, J.B.S. Haldane predicted that the first landing on Mars would not take place for 10 million years. In 1943, IBM Chairman Thomas Watson may have said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (see this Wikipedia article for discussion of alleged comment.) In 1945, FDR’s naval aide, Admiral William Leahy, said about the atomic bomb, “That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done ... the bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.” In 1949, Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, wrote “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” In 1977, DEC founder/CEO Ken Olsen remarked at a World Future Society conference that “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.” In 1981, an obscure computer geek named Bill Gates allegedly said, “640K bytes ought to be enough for anybody.” (But see this article for Gates’ denial that he ever said such a thing.)
Slide 97: Trends: today’s R&D is tomorrow’s “mainstream Some of it is secret Some of it is ignored, dismissed, rejected, or laughed at And some is being used by “pre-early adopters” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 98: Web 3.0 New York Times article on Web 3.0 “What to Expect from Web 3.0” Mass Market becomes Long Tail List of cool Web 3.0 apps Tim Berners-Lee: Web 3.0 = “semantic Web” Semantic Web = end of Google? Freebase: Wikipedia + Open Directory A definition of Web 3.0 from Jason Calcanis, and a rebuttal from Tim O'Reilly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 99: Trends: technical Moore’s Law New user interface (UI) paradigms Nicholas Carr’s vision of the future of personal computing: a marriage between Google’s “cloud” computing and Apple’s UI Death of the PC? Would a typical teenager prefer a new smart-phone, or a new PC? Rise of the thin-client device Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 100: Trends, technical: Moore’s Law 10 years = 6.67 doublings = 101.6x improvement over today’s technology Pervasive (ubiquitous) computing: today’s $100 computer becomes $1 Similar advances in speed, storage, bandwidth, footprint Computers exceed human intelligence? Embedded computing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 101: Trends, technical: ubiquitous computing Everyware: the dawning age of ubiquitous computing The $100 laptop OLPC site “Buy a Laptop for a Child, Get Another Laptop Free” David Pogue's review of OLPC, in the 10/04/2007 New York Times IEEE special issue on pervasive computing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 102: Trends, technical: embedded computing RFID Everything has an IP address Ambient devices The bionic woman/man? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 103: Trends: business Web 2.0 will put some Web 1.0 companies out of business Death of Microsoft? Appearance of next Google? Decreased relevance of venture capitalists? Boundary between customers and companies blurs ublished under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 104: Trends: social/cultural Impact of a new generation of tech-savvy users Next 5 billion Internet users Boundary between government and citizens blur Revenge by gadget Blurring of (some) political boundaries Network Nations MySpace is now 11th largest country in the world Impact on education Blurring of “real life” and “virtual life” Video: “Shift Happens” Interesting trends: "Did You Know?" and "Did You Know? 2.0" Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 105: Trends: a new generation of tech-savvy users “What Does Generation Y Want?” Growing Up Digital: the rise of the Net generation “Google, a Girl, and the Coming Apocalypse” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 106: Trends: impact on education See Michael Wesch’s video, “Vision of Students Today,” about the impact of Web 2.0 on the educational field. Banning Wikipedia for research papers A relevant statistic from a recent Wired article: 30% of young people don't even know their own phone number (and many don't carry watches any more) Should children learn to operate in society/schools without Google? Columbia Center for New Media Teaching & Learning Crowdsourcing Readings and Resources Top Web Tools for Students Student contributions to wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 107: Conclusions Assume Web 2.0 is “real,” even if over-hyped Infoworld Oct 2006 assessment: “Bubble 2.0?” Your objectives should be: Ajaxify Wikify Long-tail-ify Open up API’s for mashups Enable your people (customers, employees, citizens Assess your company’s response to new waves of technology Crossing the Chasm Is your company an innovator, early adopter, mainstream, or laggard? Separate technical response from business response! Consider a pilot project Guidelines for pilots: not too big, not too small; fast results; important, but not mission-critical; well-measured; used partly as a training opportunity Consider letting users drive it Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 108: References Conferences Books Websites and blogs Articles Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 109: References - conferences Web 2.0 Summit 2007 Web 2.0 Expo (USA) Web 2.0 Expo Berlin Web 2.0 Expo Tokyo Le Web 3/Paris Future of Web Apps/London Asia Web 2.0 conference/Singapore Other related Web 2.0 conferences PopTech (Camden, Maine) European “Next Web” 2007 (Amsterdam) AJAX World 2007 Ajaxian conferences Wikimania 2008 (venue not chosen as of 09/25/2007) Enterprise 2.0/Boston Call for participation for May 12-14, 2008 "Where 2.0" conference note to collaborators: please update these conferences with 2008 dates! note to collaborators: please add new conferences where relevant! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 110: References - Books Specific Web 2.0 books Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet and Technology Economy Building Scalable Web Sites Ajax books Pragmatic Ajax: A Web 2.0 Primer Head Rush Ajax Ajax in Action Ruby on Rails books Ruby on Rails: up and running Agile Web Development with Rails: A pragmatic guide Misc books Everything is Miscellaneous: the power of the new disorder Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything The Wealth of Nations: how social production transforms markets and freedoms The Clue Train Manifesto The Search: how Google and its rivals rewrote the rules of business, and transformed our culture Wiki Web Collaboration The Long Tail: why the future of business is selling less and less of more and more note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 books, as appropriate... Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 111: References - blogs & websites my blog: The Yourdon Report O’Reilly’s: “What is Web 2.0” O’Reilly Radar blog Google Maps Mania StartupNews.com eHub - Web 2.0 startups News about startups: TechCrunch Chris Anderson’s “The Long Tail” blog Steve Borsch’s “Connecting the Dots” blog Howard Rheingold’s “Smart Mobs” blog Official Google blog Web 2.0 slides - 1,400 sites Ian Delaney’s “Twopointtouch” blog David Weinberger’s “JOHO the Blog” Stowe Boyd’s “/Message” blog Luis Suarez’s elsua: the Knowledge Management blog note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 blogs, as appropriate Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)
Slide 112: References - articles “Someone to Watch Over Me (on a Google Map),” by Theodora Stites, New York Times, Jul 9, 2006 “Small is Beautiful for Web 2.0 Startups,” by Martin LaMonia, CNET News, Feb 6, 2006 “Software Out There,” by John Markoff, New York TImes, Apr 5, 2006 “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe, Wired, June 2006 “Digital Publishing Scrambles the Rules,” by Motoki Rich, New York Times, Jun 5, 2006 “Scan This Book!”, by Kevin Kelly, May 14, 2006 “The New Wisdom of the Web,” by Steven Levy and Brad Stone, Newsweek, April 3, 2006 “Microsoft Offers Range of Programs That Run Off Web, Not Hard Disk,” by Walter Mossberg, Wall Street Journal, Dec 15, 2005 “Corporate Americas Wakes Up To Web 2.0,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Jun 26, 2006 “Are CIO’s Ignoring Web 2.0 Technologies?”, by Allen Alter, CIO Insight, May 10, 2006 “Web 2.0: The New Internet ‘Boom’ Doesn’t Live Up To Its Name,” by Paul Boutin, Slate, March 29, 2006 “AJAX Spurs Web Rebirth for Desktop Apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 “Ajax: Smoother Surfing Without Microsoft,” by Daren Briscoe, Newsweek, January 30, 2006 “New Web-Based Technology Draws Applications, Investors,” by Mylene Mangalindan and Rebecca Buckman, Wall Street Journal, Nov 3, 2005 “Growing Wikipedia Revises Its ‘Anyone Can Edit’ Policy,” by Katie Hafner, New York Times, Jun 17, 2006 “Homo Conexus,” by James Fallows, Technology Review, Jul-Aug 2006 “The Internet Knows What You’ll Do Next,” by David Leonhardt, New York Times, Jul 5, 2006 “Does Every Company Need A Web 2.0 Strategy?” by Dion Hinchcliffe, ZDNet, Aug 9, 2006 “Creating Business Value With Web 2.0,” Cutter IT Journal special issue, October 2006 note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 articles, as appropriate. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)